RIA on HS2: We need more rail capacity, not less.

Responding to reports that the second phase of the HS2 scheme between Birmingham and Manchester may be abandoned, reviews by the Railway Industry Association (RIA) on the Department for Transport (DfT) data demonstrates that passenger numbers today are higher than in 2012, when HS2 was first approved. Numbers are returning to pre-pandemic levels.

The UK Government first confirmed support for HS2 in 2012, where passenger numbers were the same as the overall rail passenger number from April 2022 to March 2023. Rail ridership since, however, has been around 15% higher than in 2012, when HS2 was approved, when the proposed original business case focused on the need for extra capacity for an expanding railway.

These passenger numbers have continued to rise, exiting the pandemic. The DfT figures, which also include the new ridership on the Elizabeth line (not running in 2012), show that over the last year, the average daily passenger level has risen from 83% in calendar year 2022 Quarter 4, to 91% in 2023 Quarter 1, to 96% in 2023 Quarter 2 and 3, when compared with 2019-20, which until Covid was the highest ridership on record. In April 2023, passenger levels reached over 100% on 14 out of the month’s 30 days.

“One of the reasons cited by critical politicians for scrapping HS2 Phase 2 is that passenger numbers are significantly down, and people will not travel by train in future,” Darren Caplan, Chief Executive of the Railway Industry Association, said.

“This is plain wrong, and all of us associated within the railway industry should be out there publicly refuting this assertion,” he added.

“In short, passengers have been returning in droves around the country and there is no evidence this trend upwards will not continue in future,” Caplan summarised.

The RIA explained that due to a growing population, and a generally agreed need to level-up and decarbonise, the government should not abandon the second phase of the HS2 construction. The main benefit of the scheme is that it would free up capacity on the West Coast, Midlands and East Coast Mainlines, for the increasing number of passengers.